I know I would be creating a conspiracy and si-fi storey about Coronavirus and Financial Crisis now. I take this as one of the possible paths, possibility. Do not waste time if you have a pragmatic approach and not interested in what-if scenarios then please go to my friend blog coronavirus pandemic advice where he did in-depth research about the virus and cut off mass media bullshit.
I am not an economist, observing only as more than average IT person with almost 20 years experience. That is my opinion to share mostly with friends.
I do not think the February/March 2020 financial crisis is an effect of Coronavirus. Of course, it can still have an impact on goods distribution, but it is not a cause. I do not buy it. I would rather say COVID-19 might be an effect of the crisis.
Countries were printing money for several months. It is called „Quantitative easing” – most of the countries in the world. This means enormous inflation and no questions about it. It did not happen. Yet. Most money was not released to the public, and that is why we did not see growing prices. Empty bonds were used to purchase goods, companies, gold. The crisis is when investors cash out the money. That’s a simple mechanics of every crisis. The problem is when investors collect capital, and they simply change empty money into real bills without worth—slowly releasing empty cash to the markets – worldwide. Global correction is and must. Money does not disappear, and it changes the owner. Markets are clearing from bad investments. Good thing. Comprehensive plan.
Unfortunately, the scale might be more significant than we think. People ( mostly old ones ) are used to be conservative as they are too tired of changes to the modern world. 50+ keeps most of the wealth of this planet. Their adoption skills are fragile these days for modern science. It is not their fault but a system that has created them. An only small portion of these people can move forward our civilisation others are just a cost today. I would possibly become a cost to society one day as I was falsy forced to a belief paying tax might cover that one day. It did not. Recent UK Prime minister speech confirm that. Government social programs are an illusion that anyone who can do simple math can see it does not pay back to align with the government ( unless you are elite ).
What might happen next?
The virus is probably a bio-weapon – designed by nature. Russia is silent. War us-china. We do not have much information about the disease. The virus is targeting 50+, which are people that keep most of the wealth. The old financial system failed years ago ( about ~20 years ago, .com was a great example). They were saving the world by regulation of a dead horse to keep things steady. The free market had to become regulated to prevent bad things to happen. Mean to keep modern slavery. Another underground layer of financial activity was created. Like Thatcher great idea to pay for items that are required, the effect was opposite, intention good: people start creating unnecessary needs to get paid. The world is shuffling values. Mean conservative policies are protecting socialists, but not distributing general knowledge. So patents, licences might not be valid soon. Silly Uber regulation that protects older adults (taxi investors) but does not move civilisation forward. Older people have weak adoption ability to new technologies. Also, young ones do not understand most of it today.
Property value created by ‚unemployed’ people might be over soon as banks could see decrees of money paid in as mortgages. People won’t have money to pay rent. You cannot rent a new thing. You cannot throw people out from your property in coronavirus times. Will banks own all properties? Maybe. It is called nationalisation and might happen in many parts of the world even this year unless governments have the strength to keep a dead horse running.
The virus is an excellent prevention tool. People are afraid of going out. To make that happen, you need to show collateral damage as their dead neighbours were taken away. Such pictures would bring primary survival instincts to stay at home and do not die. The whole world is/will be sitting at home. Shops closed, services closed, schools closed. The entire crisis is covered. Many people send to the obligatory holiday for weeks or months.
Riots are prevented. There is a time to create a new plan. Frightened of the virus, global masses in their homes, briefly notice financial crisis. Then they complain about things. Blame virus, problem solved.
The population at homes would watch Netflix, Amazon Prime or propaganda TV. Others play games. Social distancing would improve social networks like Facebook, Skype, WeChat, Reddit, Twitter. Instagram probably become less popular as home photos would become number one distributed. Online Shopping. Unless stocks explode and telecom companies die. Then we won’t have communication to rebuild our world. Then it could take time.
Technology would be booming and cutting off a middle man as we have right now called: office. For a moment, people would stop, take a breath, but instincts would push them back to work. They would be seeking options without leaving a flat. Answer: Remote work. Increase of VPN’s, Remote desktops etc. Directors would realise soon that working from home has more benefits and savings than planned office waste time. Any remote working technology might be in beneficial today. Delivery drones are closer than we think. Many people would have to work physically, but this would change in an automatization era too. Soon.
Autonomic cars? Do you want to use a taxi with a driver and get a virus?
Parking spaces will be free, MOT, road tax and insurances will be relaxed. Later you would be forced to sell your car.
Aviation – might be affected. But how grounded planes generate loss? Material and checks maintenance + banks loans percentage. The unnecessary tax must be a wipeout as it was a sophisticated, official thief to billions of people.
Schools will be online. It already happens in China. Education cannot be stopped — and no more boom-robots. Thinking becomes survival.
Homes as buildings would change. Architecture driven by needs would stop designing tiny apartments anymore for the working class. Separate working rooms would be added like a food storage room. People might avoid stupid daily purchases of products. Cut the middle man. Prices and values would change. Living in skyscrapers is the fashion of the old and weak. Council tax would be abolished or put on hold as many other stupid taxes.
The worldwide government that would relax virus oppression once it places a new world order. A year? Would change how the whole planet exists. Long term stock contracts – probably will fail. Global warming – prevented. Ozone layer? – rebuild.
And think about your immunity passport introduced.
The world would not be the same as it was. There is no way back.
That is my fantasy but who knows. It might happen, might happen not. Bets 😉